https://www.timdavis.com/blog daily 0.75 2026-08-17 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/the-token-curve monthly 0.5 2026-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/531c34b1-ac17-4273-a2a7-d6492c282982/three_measurements_full.png Blog - The Token Curve - Make it stand out FIG. 0 This is just an illustration of three ways to read demand, as illustrative shapes rather than data: usage volume compounding fastest; inference revenue as volume x falling prices; infrastructure investment in step functions committed ahead of both. A more measured versions appears in FIG 01 and note 1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/efa8d040-3bf0-42db-b569-4775c37676d3/01_demand_curves.png Blog - The Token Curve - Make it stand out FIG. 01 Scene-setting in two panels on a log-scale: usage volume above; below, two directional indicators - Alphabet capex intensity (a ratio) and an illustrative constant-capability envelope, with mid-2026 open-weight parity releases ticked - not comparable unit costs. Methodology in note 1; envelope construction and parity dates in note 4. Lower-panel series share the dollar axis for direction, not level. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/411e17b4-ac3d-4eef-a7a4-91f91a2f27ad/02_token_sandwich.png Blog - The Token Curve - Make it stand out FIG. 02 Two curves, one trap - a 2023-2026 backtest indexed to 100 (log scale): the illustrative market envelope as a 3x-10x scenario band, a locked contract divided by 1.2x and 2x annual efficiency, and new contracts at 2x efficiency. A locked book at 2x still indexes to 12.5 against a market band of 0.1-3.7. Sources: a16z LLMflation, Epoch AI (note 4); observed H100 reserved-rate path. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/938b4a57-1a53-46ad-9f58-f3b43664315d/03_hetero_frontier.png Blog - The Token Curve - Make it stand out FIG. 03 Announced heterogeneous programs mapped to deployment windows - deployed, contracted/committed, product cadence, and announced/JV kept distinct, with the Trainium row splitting its deployed run rate from forward committed demand. Not a comparable supply curve; deployed is not merchant. Sources in note 6. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/d488dc84-53a7-4bda-bc18-a8528a25db0e/04_enablement_amortization.png Blog - The Token Curve - Make it stand out FIG. 04 The enablement stack per model-silicon pairing, and cumulative enablement cost against the number of silicon targets - captive paid per provider per pairing vs a portability layer amortized with low incremental cost per target. Axes are relative engineering effort; illustrative, not a forecast (note 5). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/f08e0d90-d0cf-4ca4-a03c-4afb0f89b9d6/05_portability_waterfall.png Blog - The Token Curve - Make it stand out FIG. 05 Panel A: required capital recovery per GPU-hour repriced one factor at a time to an illustrative liquid-market case, with a one-variable useful-life sensitivity (5.5 / 7 / 8 years at fixed financing and utilization). Panel B: cross-silicon competition as direction, not a point estimate. Illustrative model on a secured captive comparator; assumptions in note 14. https://www.timdavis.com/blog/ee-times-why-qualcomm-bought-an-open-ai-software-stack monthly 0.5 2026-08-15 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/every-gpu-loan-is-really-a-software-loan monthly 0.5 2026-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/e804e231-9eba-445f-b367-cc4813c14b5b/h100-price-arc.png Blog - Every GPU loan is really a software loan - Make it stand out FIG. 01 H100 GPU-hour pricing, 2023-2026. Sources: SemiAnalysis, Silicon Data, Spheron. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/ccac7b8c-afe6-44ce-808c-9dce2be8bdae/02-coreweave-rates.png Blog - Every GPU loan is really a software loan - Make it stand out FIG. 02 CoreWeave debt pricing by structure, 2023-2026. Sources: CoreWeave 8-K filings, Moody’s rating actions, DBRS, Reuters. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/79368fad-176c-4d38-9755-6c17110a60df/07-residual-value.png Blog - Every GPU loan is really a software loan - Make it stand out FIG. 03 Indicative year-three value marks and market observability - narrowbody 80-90% band per appraiser conventions (note 18), H100 span per public 2026 marks, captive accelerators with no observable independent market. Not directly comparable appraisals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/64bf8d14-e787-4bbf-836f-2bb455bf52c8/01-amortization.png Blog - Every GPU loan is really a software loan - Make it stand out FIG. 04 Scheduled senior amortization: aircraft EETC vs CoreWeave DDTL 4.0, which fully repays principal inside the roughly six-year facility. Sources: ISTAT / EETC structures; CoreWeave and Moody’s descriptions of DDTL 4.0. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/61dd0433-05ad-469f-9c15-0e0d40571a6f/04-gpu-generations.png Blog - Every GPU loan is really a software loan - Make it stand out FIG. 05 Selected July 2026 rental marks by GPU launch year - a cross-section across generations, not the depreciation path of any single GPU. Sources in note 24. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/4d6ec137-e9d0-4674-ba8d-8888514859ae/05-earning-tail.png Blog - Every GPU loan is really a software loan - Make it stand out FIG. 06 Cumulative gross rental revenue per H100 with workload continuity vs a no-cascade counterfactual - illustrative model, not an asset valuation. This isolates software continuity inside one ecosystem; cross-silicon portability would extend the same mechanism across the asset class. Assumptions in note 25. https://www.timdavis.com/blog/australian-entrepreneur-sells-ai-start-up-modular monthly 0.5 2026-08-15 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/qualcomm-buys-buzzy-chip-startup-modular monthly 0.5 2026-08-15 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/probabilistic-engineering-and-the-24-7-employee monthly 0.5 2026-08-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/ea1768c7-9801-49d7-a915-eb040f7a6ad6/verification-gap.png Blog - Probabilistic engineering and the 24-7 employee - Make it stand out This line chart showing two curves against the share of a codebase written by agents. I believe that the generation curve rises gently and stays near linear; while the review curve bends upward faster than linearly. The shaded band between them, which I labeled “the verification gap,” widens steadily to the right. https://www.timdavis.com/blog/future-forward-interview monthly 0.5 2026-02-14 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/the-case-for-democratising-compute-in-a-multi-model-world monthly 0.5 2026-02-06 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/the-android-moment-for-ai-why-modular-raised-250-break-gpu-lockin monthly 0.5 2025-11-27 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/what-we-owe-the-minds-we-create monthly 0.5 2025-10-15 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/modular-raises-250m-to-scale-ais-unified-compute-layer monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/interview-with-alejandro-cremades monthly 0.5 2025-06-17 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/scale-or-surrender-when-watts-determine-freedom monthly 0.5 2026-08-15 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/fundbuildscale-podcast-interview monthly 0.5 2025-05-19 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/ai-regulation-step-with-care-and-great-tact monthly 0.5 2025-06-01 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/the-aussie-conquering-silicon-valley monthly 0.5 2025-05-19 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/unite-ai-interview-series monthly 0.5 2025-05-17 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/modular-has-raised-100m-to-fix-ai-infrastructure monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/data-exchange-interview monthly 0.5 2025-05-17 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/founding-modular-raising-30m monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/help-jason-find-his-rhythm monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/saving-the-great-barrier-reef monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/mlir-open-source-infrastructure-for-the-world monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/the-career-opportunity-matrix monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/presenting-at-google-i-o monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/supportive-confrontation monthly 0.5 2025-09-30 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/category/Short+posts monthly 0.5 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/category/Interviews monthly 0.5 https://www.timdavis.com/blog/category/Essays monthly 0.5 https://www.timdavis.com/home daily 1.0 2026-07-30 https://www.timdavis.com/about daily 0.75 2026-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/01f90be9-b606-4738-9150-6beff71e6cdd/_SDK3972.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/6e4a5b87-f4a9-4943-8a86-f44eac0cec53/tim-davis.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6827a9fa811b26778a4e33b4/bc50b4ec-4fb6-4529-925e-647ecc1f3860/ModCon-2023-Chloe-Jackman-Photography-6.jpg